Macro Interpretation: Powell's Fog Drive and Financial Hunger Game
The new policy regime is characterized by three features: limited visibility, weak confidence and liquidity-driven distortions。
Original title: "Driving in Fog" and the Financial Hunger Games
original by: arndxt, encryption analyst
Original: Tinker Bell, Daily Daily Planet
Large recall matches the quantitative easing (QE) cycle - when the Fed intends to extend the maturity of its holdings in order to reduce the long-term rate of return (this operation is called Operation Twist and QE2/QE3)。
Powell's metaphor for "driving in the fog" is no longer confined to the Fed itself, but is a reflection of today's global economy. Policymakers, businesses and investors alike are moving forward in environments that lack a clear vision and rely only on liquidity reflectors and short-term incentives。
The new policy system has three features:Limited visibility, weak confidence, liquidity-driven distortions。
The Fed's "hawk pie."
This time, the “risk management” approach” of the 25 basis points reduced the interest rate range to 3.75 per cent-4.00 per cent, more of a “reserve the right to choose” than an easing。
With two opposing opinions, Powell sent a clear signal to the market:"Slow down - visibility has disappeared."。
As a result of the data gap caused by the suspension of the government, the Fed is almost "blind." Powell's hint to traders is clear:The issue of whether interest rates could be published in December remains open. Interest rate reductions are expected to fall rapidly, short-end interest-rate curves are flattening, and markets are digesting caution to shift from "data driven" to "data missing"。
2025: Mobility "Home Game"
Repeated central bank interventions institutionalized speculation. TodayIt is not productivity that determines asset performance, but liquidity itself— This structure leads to growing valuations, while credit in the real economy is weakening。
The discussion further expanded to a sobering look at the current financial system: passive concentration, counter-altitude of algorithms, dislodge frenzy -
• Passive funds and quantitative strategies dominate liquidity, and volatility is determined by position rather than base。
• Synthetic price dynamics are created in the “Meme Board” by the bulk-seeing options purchaser and Gamma, while institutional funds pile up into increasingly narrow market leaders。
• The moderator referred to the phenomenon as a “financial hunger game” — a system shaped by structural inequalities and counterproductive policies that forced small investors to move towards speculative survivalism。
2026 Looking forward: the boom and worry of capital spending
AI INVESTMENT WAVES ARE DRIVING “BIG TECHNOLOGY” INTO A LATER STAGE OF INDUSTRIALIZATION — NOW DRIVEN BY LIQUIDITY, AND IN THE FUTURE BY LEVERAGE-SENSITIVE RISKS。
Business profits are still bright, but the bottom logic is changing: onceThe Light Assets Cash Machine is being transformed into a heavy capital infrastructure player。
• AI, together with the expansion of the data centre, which initially relied on cash flows, is now turning to record debt financing — for example, the $25 billion oversubscribed by Meta。
• This shift means that profit margins are under pressure, depreciation increases and the risk of refinancing increases — to ambush the turn of the next credit cycle。
Structural commentary: cycles of trust, distribution and policy
From the cautious tone of Powell to the final reflection, a clear thread runs through:Centralization of power and loss of trust。
Almost every policy bailout is strengthening the largest market players, leading to greater concentration of wealth and continued erosion of market integrity. Coordinated operations between the Fed and the Treasury — moving from quantitative austerity (QT) to short-term Treasury debt (Bill) purchases — have exacerbated this trend:Mobility is abundant at the top of the pyramid, while ordinary households are overwhelmed by stagnant wages and rising debt。
The core macrorisk today is no longer inflationSystem fatigueI don't know. The market appears to be still booming, but trust in "equity and transparency" is losing -- and that is the real systemic fragility of the 2020s。
Macro Weekly Update 2 November 2025
The current period covers the following:
• Macro events this week
• Bitcoin heat index
:: Market overview
:: Key economic indicators
Macro event this week
Last week
Next week
Bitcoin heat index
Market events and institutional developments
• Mt. Gox extended the repayment period to 2026, with approximately $4 billion of bitcoin still frozen。
• Bitwise Solana ETF managed at a scale of $338.9 million during its first week, updating its record, even though the SEC is still at a clearance impasse。
• ConsenSys planned IPO in 2026, which includes Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, with a target estimate of $7 billion。
• Trump Media Group launched True Predict — the first forecast market for collaboration between social media platforms and Crystal.com。
Finance and payment infrastructure upgrading
• Mastercard bought up to $2 billion from the encryption infrastructure company Zerohash。
• Western Union plans to introduce a stable currency USDPT on Solana in 2026 and to register the WUUDD trademark。
• Citibank joined forces with Coinbase to launch an institutional level 24/7 stabilization currency payment network。
• Circle launched the Arc Public Monitoring Network, which attracted the participation of more than 100 institutions, including Belet and Visa。
Ecology and platform expansion
• MetaMask launched multi-chain accounts in support of EVM, Solana, and is about to go online for bitcoin support。
Global and regional developments
• KYRGYZSTAN INTRODUCED A STABLE CURRENCY WITH BNB AS COLLATERAL; AT THE SAME TIME, THE TRUMP PARDON CZ PAVED THE WAY FOR THE RETURN OF THE CURRENCY TO THE UNITED STATES MARKET。
• $199.2 MILLION IN UNITED STATES SOL SPOT ETF (EXCLUDING SEED MONEY) INFLOWS。
• JAPAN LAUNCHED A FULLY COMPLIANT JPYC STABILIZATION CURRENCY WITH A TARGET OF $65-70 BILLION BY 2028。
• THE ANT GROUP REGISTERED THE "ANTCOIN" TRADEMARK AND RETURNED TO HONG KONG'S STABLE CURRENCY TRACK。
• THE INTERRUPTION OF AWS AND MICROSOFT CLOUD SERVICES CAUSED MARKET DISRUPTIONS AND CONFLICTING CLAIMS。
:: The Morgan Chase Kinexys block chain completed the first private equity fund monetization transaction and further promoted institutional adoption。
• Tether became one of the major United States Treasury debt holders, holding on to $135.0 billion, with annualized gains exceeding $10 billion。
• Metaplanet launched a stock buy-back plan to address the decline in net assets。
• THE INCREASE IN THE HEAT OF PRIVATE ASSET TRADING AND THE BREAKTHROUGH IN ZEC PRICES IN 2021, BUT THE INCREASE THIS WEEK IS STILL LAGGING BEHIND DASH。
:: Sharplink deployed $200 million ETH on Linea to capture DeFi gains。
• Polymarket plans to officially launch its product in the United States at the end of November, as the sports fair becomes a hot piece。
• Securitize announced that it would be listed through a combined SPAC of $1.25 billion。
• Visa to add payment support for four stable currencies, four chains。
• 21 Shares submitted Hypeliquid ETF applications, and more encryption funds are entering the market。
• KRWQ became the first Korean dollar stabilization currency to be released on the Base chain。
Market overview
The global economy is transitioning from inflation risk to confidence risk -Future stability will depend on policy clarity rather than liquidity。
Global monetary policy is enteringThe stage where visibility is limitedI DON'T KNOW. IN THE UNITED STATES, FOMC REDUCED INTEREST RATES BY 25 BASIS POINTS TO 3.75-4.00 PER CENT, EXPOSING THE WIDENING OF INTERNAL DIVISIONS. "IT'S NOT A BIG DEAL," SAYS POWELL. CONTINUED GOVERNMENT STAGNATION PREVENTS POLICYMAKERS FROM ACCESSING KEY DATA AND INCREASES THE RISK OF POLICY MISCALCULATION. REDUCED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND A SLOWDOWN IN REAL ESTATE MEAN THAT MARKET SENTIMENT RATHER THAN STIMULUS MEASURES ARE SHAPING THE ECONOMY'S “SOFT LANDING”。
AMONG THE G10 COUNTRIES: THE CENTRAL BANK OF CANADA COMPLETED ITS LAST INTEREST RATE REDUCTION, THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK MAINTAINED 2.00 PER CENT INTEREST RATE AND THE CENTRAL BANK OF JAPAN CAREFULLY SUSPENDED. THE COMMON CHALLENGE IS HOW TO CURB ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE CONTEXT OF PERSISTENT SERVICES INFLATION. AT THE SAME TIME, CHINA ' S PMI HAS AGAIN FALLEN IN RECOVERY, SHOWING WEAK RECOVERY, LOW PRIVATE DEMAND, AND POLICY FATIGUE。
A combination of political risks, the stagnation of the United States Government threatens the proper functioning of welfare projects and may delay the release of key data, thereby undermining confidence in fiscal governance. Bond markets have begun to absorb expectations of declining yields and slower economic growth, but the real risk lies in the collapse of institutional feedback mechanisms — data delays, policy hesitations and a decline in public confidence — that are intertwined and ultimately lead to a crisis。
Key economic indicators
Inflation in the United States: warming up, clearer paths
The recovery in inflation was driven mainly by supply rather than demand. Core pressures remain under control, with reduced employment dynamics, giving the Fed the space to continue to reduce interest rates without triggering inflation rebounds。
• The inflation rate in September was 3.0 per cent and the ring ratio 0.3 per cent, the fastest since January of this year, but still below expectations, reinforcing the "soft landing" narrative。
REMOVE THE CORE CPI FOR FOOD AND ENERGY FROM THE SAME RATIO OF 3.0 PER CENT AND AROUND 0.2 PER CENT, INDICATING STABLE PRICE BASES。
• Food price rises of 2.7 per cent, of which meat rises 8.5 per cent, affected by the shortage of agricultural labour caused by immigration restrictions。
• THE COST OF UTILITIES HAS RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY: ELECTRICITY + 5.1 PER CENT, NATURAL GAS + 11.7 PER CENT, MAINLY DRIVEN BY ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN AI DATA CENTRES - A NEW DRIVER OF INFLATION。
• Inflation in services has fallen to 3.6 per cent, the lowest since 2021, indicating that the slowdown in the labour market is easing wage pressures。
• A positive market response: stock market rises, interest rate futures are expected to increase, and bond yields are generally stable。
Demographic structure of the United States: criticality transition
Net migration turned negative and economic growth, labour supply and innovation capacity were challenged。
America may comePopulation decline for the first time in a centuryI don't know. Although the number of births is still higher than the number of deaths, net migration is negative, offsetting the increase of 3 million in 2024. The United States is facing a demographic reversal, not as a result of a decline in fertility, but as a result of a sharp decline in policy-induced migration. Short-term impacts include labour shortages and wage increases; long-term risks are concentrated on fiscal pressures and a slowdown in innovation. Unless this trend is reversed, the United States is likely to repeat Japan's ageing pattern — slowing economic growth, rising costs and structural productivity challenges。
ACCORDING TO AEI PROJECTIONS, THE NET MIGRATION IN 2025 – 5.25 MILLION – WAS THE FIRST NEGATIVE IN MODERN HISTORY。
• Data from the Pew Research Centre show that in the first half of 2025 the number of foreign-born persons decreased by 1.5 million, mainly due to expulsion and voluntary departure。
• The stagnation of the labour force and apparent shortages and wage pressures in agriculture, construction and health。
• Twenty-eight per cent of young Americans are immigrants or children of immigrants, and if immigration is zero, the population under the age of 18 may fall by 14 per cent in 2035 and the pension and medical burden will increase。
:: Twenty-seven per cent of doctors and 22 per cent of nursing assistants are immigrants, and the automation and robotization of the medical industry could accelerate if supplies decline。
• Innovation risk: Migration has contributed 38 per cent of the Nobel Prize and about 50 per cent of the billions of dollars of start-ups, and if the trend is reversed, the United States innovation engine will be damaged。
Japan ' s export rebound: recovery in the shadow of tariffs
Japan's exports rebounded despite United States tariffs. Exports grew by 4.2 per cent in September, the first positive growth since April, mainly fromIn Asia and Europe, the demand warms up。
After months of contraction, Japan's exports resumed their growth, rising 4.2 per cent in September, the largest increase since March. This rebound highlighted the fact that, despite new trade frictions with the United States, regional demand remained strong and supply chains adjusted accordingly。
Japan ' s trade performance shows that external demand in Asia and Europe has initially stabilized, despite the imposition of tariffs by the United States on automobiles (their core export categories). The upturn in imports indicates a mild rebound in domestic demand, driven by the softening of the yen and the replenishment cycle。
Outlook:
• Exports are expected to recover gradually, driven by the normalization of intra-Asian supply chains and energy prices
• Continued protectionism in the United States remains the main resistance to maintaining export momentum in 2026。