The U.S. government stops and pays the benefits
Polymarket data shows that the probability of market bets on the end of the US government ' s suspension from November 12-15 is 55 per cent。
Polymarket data shows that the probability of market bets on the end of the US government ' s suspension from November 12-15 is 55 per cent。
Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
In recent days, the encryption market has come up with two benefits, and on November 9, Trump announced that it would deliver at least $2,000 in dividends to everyone. The next day, Trump said in front of the media that the pause seemed to be over. At present, the United States Senate is conducting a test vote on a programme to end the Government ' s suspension, requiring 60 votes to pass. According to the latest data, only one vote is currently missing。
IT'S GOOD NEWS, AND THE ENCRYPTION MARKET SHOULD MOVE. ON THE EVENING OF 9 NOVEMBER, BTC HAD RISEN FROM $102,000 TO A RECENT PEAK OF $10.66 MILLION, WHILE ETH HAD RISEN FROM $3,400 TO THE CURRENT $3,600, WITH A 24-HOUR INCREASE OF OVER 7 PER CENT. A SMALL INCREASE IN THE COUNTRY'S CURRENCY。
The longest stop in the history of the United States government is coming to an end
The potential end of the United States Government's stagnation is the greatest macro-profit in the recent past in the encryption market. The suspension, which began in October of this year, was the result of budgetary differences in Congress, which led to the freezing of federal funds, affecting many areas from social security payments to defence spending. According to the Budget Office of the United States Congress, the suspension has resulted in a daily economic loss of about $1 billion, totalling tens of billions of dollars. This directly undermines investor confidence, exacerbates uncertainty, diverts institutional funds to secure assets such as public debt, and drains encryption liquidity。
THE DIRECTOR OF THE WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL ECONOMIC COMMISSION, HASSET: IF THE US GOVERNMENT STOPS, GDP IN THE FOURTH QUARTER COULD BE NEGATIVE. THE UNITED STATES FINANCE MINISTER, VICENTE, ALSO SAID THAT THE IMPACT OF THE GOVERNMENT’S STAGNATION ON THE ECONOMY WAS GETTING WORSE AND WORSE。
At around 9 a.m. on November 10th, 40 days after the federal government of the United States “stop”, United States President Trump said to the media: “It seems that we are getting closer to ending the “stop”. The Senate of the United States Congress was expected to move forward that evening on a bill passed by the House of Representatives, but the bill would be amended to include short-term allocation measures (which could fund the federal Government until January 2026) and three full-year appropriation bills。
Fox Reporter stated that the United States Senate was conducting a test vote on a programme to end the Government ' s suspension, which required 60 votes。
The Senate is conducting a procedural vote to end the government's suspension, which is currently only 1 vote shortI DON'T KNOW. ACCORDING TO THE RELEVANT INFORMATION, FOLLOWING THE ADOPTION OF THE PROCEDURAL VOTE, THE SENATE HAD TO AMEND THE THREE APPROPRIATION BILLS (LEGISLATION, MILITARY CONSTRUCTION AND AGRICULTURE, INCLUDING THE SNA PLAN) AND THEN RETURN THEM TO THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES. EACH CHANGE TRIGGERS A 30-HOUR DEBATE PERIOD, WHICH MAY DELAY THE PROCESS. IF THE DEMOCRATS CHOOSE TO PROLONG THESE DEBATES, THE GOVERNMENT MAY NOT REOPEN UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT IF THEY GIVE UP THEIR TIME, THE PROCESS OF “END THE GOVERNMENT PAUSE” WILL BE COMPLETED TONIGHT, AND THE US GOVERNMENT WILL REOPEN TOMORROW NIGHT. THE CURRENT OBSTRUCTION OF THE RULES OF PROCEDURE COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE TIMETABLE。
The data on Polymark show that the market bets on the end of the US government ' s suspension increased to 39 per cent before November 11 and 55 per cent between November 12 and 15. At present, the forecast totals over $18.1 million。
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote that the U.S. government has begun to do what it does best — printing money, making benefits. BTC and ZEC are going to take off. Prior to Arthur's analysis, BTC had fallen by 5 per cent since the rise in the United States debt ceiling in July, and the dollar's liquidity had fallen by 8 per cent. The United States Treasury Department account (TGA) took away liquid dollars from the market. When the US government stops, the TGA will decline, will benefit the dollar, and the BTC will rise。
Historical data show that, similar to that of 2019, the encryption market rebounded 10-15 per cent within two weeks, and if history repeats, the price of the market continues to rebound。
The U.S. government will pay everyone a 2000 dollar dividend
Trump’s tariff war once made global investors nervous. The customs war has even become the trigger for the "10.11 crash" of the encrypted market。
in recent days, trump has justified his customs war: those who oppose customs are fools! we are now the richest and most respected country in the world, with almost zero inflation and a record high in stock markets. the balance of the pension account has also reached an all-time high. our annual revenues are trillions of dollars, and we will soon be able to begin servicing the huge debt of 37 trillion dollars. investment in the united states is at an all-time high, with factories and enterprises emerging in spring. a dividend of at least us$ 2,000 will be paid to everyone (excluding high-income groups!)。
Trump's tariff dividend scheme — which injects potential funds from the consumer end, magnifies the leverage of the encrypted market. This is based on its trade policy: a 10 to 60 per cent tariff on imported goods is expected to generate $1 trillion in revenue in 2026. The Ministry of Finance preliminary estimates that this will cover some hundreds of millions of people, with total expenditure exceeding $6 trillion, partially achieved through direct transfers。
THE BENEFITS OF THIS SCHEME FOR ENCRYPTION LIQUIDITY ARE DUE TO THE SPILLOVER EFFECT. CONSUMER SPENDING IN THE UNITED STATES ACCOUNTS FOR 70 PER CENT OF GDP, AND DIVIDENDS WILL STIMULATE RETAIL AND INVESTMENT. ACCORDING TO FEDERAL RESERVE DATA, AFTER A SIMILAR 2021 OUTBREAK OF STIMULANT CHECKS, THE BULK MONEY WENT INTO ENCRYPTION OF UP TO 15 PER CENT, PUSHING BITCOIN TO INCREASE FROM $40,000 TO $60,000. THE DIVIDEND IS LARGER, WITH 10-20 PER CENT (APPROXIMATELY $600-1.2 TRILLION) EXPECTED TO FLOW INTO HIGH-RISK ASSETS。
The two events were intertwined and the short-term mood of the encrypted market improved significantly. Dismantling releases frozen institutional funds, while the dividend scheme injects fresh blood from the retail end。
In addition, the Fed’s interest rate of 25 basis points has risen to 73% in December, and will continue to inject liquidity into risky assets。
The current security index for the encrypted market, which has been in deep panic since the beginning of November, is still 29, and perhaps when market liquidity re-emerges, market sentiment will improve markedly。