Arthur Hayes, home research manager: Look at all of this

2026/06/28 00:52
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Arthur Hayes, home research manager: Look at all of this

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original link: https://www.techflowpost.com/article/32198

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Collator Crypt (CC) monetizes rating transactions on the Solana platform and earns cash as a result: annualized profits in May are about $53 million, at this rate in June, about $109 million, while its final issue price is about $500 million. This is a true product that goes beyond encrypted currency and achieves deep market convergence. It brought real cash and returned the proceeds to the holders, and is now in a period of high growth。

We are at an early stage. eBay's wheeling to CC is just beginning, and liquidity is not yet available because the token is first on the Decentro-Exchange (DEX). The rising potential of the venture investment level is one of the lowest valuation multipliers in the industry。

Expected collection

The majority of Collctor's profits come from the egg twister. Collator buys a transaction card at a discount of 5-15%. Once the package is opened, the user has two options: to retain the card or immediately sell it at a price below the market price of 7-15 per cent. Most users look for rare cards and sell most of them. This creates a powerful business model: users get a card package with an expected return of about 2 per cent, while Collect gets about 4.5 per cent of the profits。

PLAYERS WHO WANT TO BUILD A $100,000 CARD COLLECTION GET ON AVERAGE $102 MILLION IN CARDS. IN ADDITION TO TWISTING EGGS, USERS CAN TRADE CARDS DIRECTLY IN THE SECONDARY MARKET. SINCE CC LAUNCHED ITS PRIMARY TRADING PLATFORM IN LATE APRIL, THE VOLUME OF TRANSACTIONS HAS GROWN RAPIDLY, REACHING A CUMULATIVE VALUE OF APPROXIMATELY $650,000 PER WEEK。

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Beat eBay

The stabilization currency subverted cross-border payments. The ultra-molecular currency subverts all-weather transactions. They have all made ten times the chain of the original flawed Web 2 process and liberalized finance. CC is bringing the same changes to the swap card deal. This is a huge opportunity: eBay achieved $22.2 billion in total transactions in the first quarter of 2026, earning $3.1 billion. The collection is its greatest engine of growth。

Today, most card deals are made through eBay. The total cost of selling a card on eBay is 16% to 20% of the total sales. This includes standard transaction costs (13.25 per cent), fixed order costs, alternative promotional commodity information, packaging and transportation costs. This is an exploitative market structure with enormous operating costs。

The credit card is completely different: it's only 2% of the fees, instant settlement, it's stored in an insured custodian, and it can be traded with one key. This is undoubtedly a subversive change, and it is also taken for granted afterwards。

Stars

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Business value; 93 per cent buy-back rate; this can be a good approximation to the overall profit margin of all cartons. After deduction of incentives, the net profit margin was approximately 4.4 per cent。

LAST MONTH, THE TOTAL ANNUALIZED REVENUE OF CC WAS $1.2 BILLION, WHICH MEANS AN ANNUALIZED PROFIT OF $54 MILLION FOR THE SPRAINING BUSINESS. IN JUNE, WE ARE ON TRACK TO ACHIEVE $2.4 BILLION IN ANNUALIZED GROSS REVENUE AND $109 MILLION IN ANNUALIZED EGG TWISTING OPERATIONS。

In addition to the spraining mechanism, other profit drivers include:

  • Market costs: secondary market transaction costs
  • PARTNERSHIPS: CC-BASED INFRASTRUCTURE-BASED PROJECTS
  • eBay Sniper: Allow collectors to use USDC to set the highest bid in eBay auctions。

The twister keeps the inventory chained, and we're moving towards the critical point where the CC chain moves against eBay. Significant increases are expected in secondary market transactions and fees。

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SUPPLY IS ABOUT 40% MORE STRESSFUL THAN FDV PROJECTIONS。

FDV IS CALCULATED ON THE BASIS OF A TOTAL SUPPLY OF 2 BILLION. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT OVERESTIMATION OF THE FINAL SUPPLY AFTER ALL THE COINS WERE UNLOCKED IN SEPTEMBER 2027. MORE THAN 50 PER CENT OF THE TOTAL SUPPLY IS ALLOCATED TO FOUNDATIONS AND COMMUNITIES, MOST OF WHICH WILL NEVER BE IN CIRCULATION。

  • COMMUNITIES: PAY INCENTIVES. DISTRIBUTION OF 2.5% AT TOKEN GENERATOR (TGE) AND 0.75% TO USERS EVERY THREE MONTHS. THE TEAM WILL SLOW DOWN ITS DISTRIBUTION AS TOKEN PRICES RISE. IT IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED THAT BY SEPTEMBER 2027, HALF OF THE COMMUNITY TOKEN SUPPLY WILL BE IN CIRCULATION。
  • Basis: For future recruitment and job placement. Because of their profitability, they may remain completely unchanged. It is conservatively estimated that by September 2027, 30 per cent of the supply could be in circulation。

EVEN ON THE MOST OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTION, ONLY 1.3 BILLION COINS WILL ACTUALLY CIRCULATE AFTER ALL THE UNLOCKS HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. AT THE TIME OF PURCHASE, THE CARD WAS HELD AT THE FINAL VALUATION OF $500 MILLION (FDV) UNTIL ALL THE LOCKS WERE UNLOCKED, AND YOU ACTUALLY PURCHASED A VALUATION OF ABOUT $325 MILLION。

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Repurchase

TO DATE, CC HAS ACCUMULATED APPROXIMATELY $23 MILLION WORTH OF TRADING CARD INVENTORY AND APPROXIMATELY $10 MILLION IN CASH. THIS CASH CAN BE USED FOR NEW GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES AND FOR CURRENCY BUY-BACKS。

REPURCHASES HAVE BEGUN. ON MAY 12TH, CC ACQUIRED THE SHARES OF A FORMER SEEDER INVESTOR:

This settlement is very clear - funds are paid directly from the pool in the form of a trust account and are shared by both parties. The team may also have liquidated the funds of the seeder investors。

MOREOVER, CC SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN BUYING IN THE MARKET SINCE JUNE 11. FOR A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE ARTICLE, SEE BELOW。

Marginalization of liquidity

Like Hyperliquid, CC does not succumb to high central exchange (CEX) charges, but chooses to prioritize the development of the DEX. The volume of transactions has recovered, but it is still not sufficient to allow liquidity to build a sizeable warehouse。

The next hot product initially looked like a toy。

CC IS MORE THAN JUST A SWAP CARD COMPANY. IT IS BUILDING A FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR AN ENTIRELY NEW ASSET CLASS. SWAP CARDS AND BROADER COLLECTIONS HAVE BECOME AN EMERGING HIGH-YIELD ASSET CLASS — BUT TO DATE INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO PARTICIPATE。

Imagine you run a family office and want to allocate $10 million to buy a swap card. Will you go eBay up and down 10,000 orders and let the seller send the card to the office? Obviously not. The emergence of a block card opened the door to a whole new group of market participants。

Watches, cars and wines - Collections have long been a way for the rich to be visible and to be identified. And for the young buyers, the switch card was a good time. As the intergenerational transfer of wealth accelerates, the swap card is becoming the next major collection category。

With its small but highly potential user community, CC built a rocket-like growth ship at the intersection of encrypted currency and precious dreams. The company, which has approximately 800 active users on a daily basis, has more profitability than many giant companies in the field of encrypted currency. Today, the CC team is expanding its operations to more collection areas, such as sports cards, and marching on Web 2.0. It has become one of the most profitable companies in the field of encrypted currency — and this is only the beginning。

Maelstrom target price: $4 at the end of the summer. Non-financial recommendation. Please study for yourself。

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