The encryption concept unit observed daily: Strategy MSTR fell $100, STRC face value depreciated 21% - a bitcoin ship from Saylor is undergoing the worst stress test in 2026
Synchronization of triple pressure: prices, dividends and market confidence
The challenge facing Strategy is not a single factor, but a simultaneous resonance of triple pressure:ONE, BTC PRICES$59,000 lower than 75,641 average Approximately22%THE ACCOUNTS OF THE 847,363 BTCS SHOW A TOTAL LOSS OF APPROXIMATELY $14.1 BILLION; ALL THE BTCS PURCHASED IN 2024, 2025 AND 2026 ARE ALL IN DEFICIT, AND EACH ONE WILL HAVE A REAL LOSS IF IT IS EVEN TODAY。Two, dividends pressure: CriptoQuant reports that the company's annualized preferential dividends obligations have expanded from approximately $300 million to about $300 million. Approximately$1.2 billion(STRK, STRC, STRD, ETC. CUMULATIVE), WHILE THE USD RESERVE FELL FROM $2.25 BILLION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR TO ABOUT $1.1 BILLION AT PRESENT, AND THE DIVIDENDS COVER PERIOD FELL SHARPLY FROM THE ORIGINAL 7+ YEAR TO AROUND14 monthsThe company has further depleted its liquidity reserves through $150 million for revolving debt buy-backs in 2029。Third, the market confidence crisis: STRC discount 21% means that the market's confidence in Strategy's preferred share in nominal terms has shown visible cracks, and CriptoQuant's founder, Ki Young Ju, openly compared Saylor's currency purchases to "always bought at local heights" and pointed out that the company has accumulated $46.7 billion since 2024, while BTC's current prices have fallen by only about 1% during the same period — “buying did not push up prices, simply absorbed the pressure of selling”。
CryptoQuant's three proposals: a moratorium on additional purchases, a modeling framework, top sales
CryptoQuant, in his analysis of June 24, made three specific recommendations, representing the diagnosis of the capital structure of Strategy by the most authoritative third party:Recommendation 1SUSPEND THE PURCHASE OF BITCOIN UNTIL THE USD RESERVE IS RE-ESTABLISHED$2.8 billion(COVERING 24 MONTHS OF DIVIDENDS), AT WHICH TIME THE SRC IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ITS NOMINAL VALUE AND THUS ITS FINANCING CAPACITYRecommendation 2(b) Establish a systematic quantitative buy-in framework to replace Saylor-led market mood-driven buy-outs to reduce systemic risks of "overtake-in"Recommendation 3The next round of disciplined marketing frameworks for high-point cattle markets - "Sale in the vicinity of the high-cycle points does not mean giving up bitcoin, but rather deleveraging, achieving shareholder value and creating bullets for subsequent low-level accumulation." The three proposals, in terms of the internal logic of Strategy, face enormous obstacles: a moratorium on additional purchases would destabilize the long-established "soldier-held" market narrative of Saylor; and the creation of a framework for selling directly contradicts its "never-sold" public position。
$10.5 billion options expire today: max plain $74,000 does it constitute a powerful rebound trigger? points
Today (26 June)$10.5 billionbitcoin options expired, max pain$74,000is much higher than the current spot price of approximately $59,000. Bitfinex analyst says, "Max plain $74,000 is a distraction number." – In the current market environment of extreme fear (indicator 18), short-term price push over maturity has been limited, with the Gamma pressure on market traders concentrated in the $60,000-$65,000 zone. However, after the expiry of the option, the empty position, if not extended, will release part of the pressure and provide BTC with short-term technical rebound space. For Strategy, the BTC would increase the book value of 847,363 BTCs by up to $62,000-$64,000 after the expiry of its options today$2.5-$4.2 billionAND IT ALSO PROVIDES TECHNICAL SUPPORT TO STRC TO REBUILD MARKET CONFIDENCE。
CARITY Act adds a new opposition force, and on July 4th the target faces greater uncertainty
In parallel to the Strategy crisis and Bitcoin Bear, the legislative process of Clarity Act had a new resistance yesterday: Approximately100The United States Catholic Bishops and Church Leaders sent a joint letter to the Senate majority leader, John Thune, and minority leader Chuck Schumer, on behalf of part of the AEHT Coalition against CLARITY Act, on the grounds that one of its provisions would "undercut federal safeguards against human trafficking and financial crime". This was followed by the banking lobby (ABA/BPI/ICBA) and some Democrat senators, and the emergence of a third group of organized opposition forces — three types of opposition voices that constitute unmindful voting pressure over the 60-vote threshold. White House, July 4th8 daysAnd the fact that the Senate's actual operational days (after weekends) are less than 5 working days makes it critical to achieve a procedural breakthrough by the end of the week - I don't know. If the 60-vote pledge cannot be locked down by Monday, the target will be dead on July 4th, and can only be restarted as soon as possible after the national holiday。
Data source:https://bbx.com/THE ENCRYPTION CONCEPTS INFORMATION BASE IS BASED ON YESTERDAY'S GLOBAL LISTED CORPORATE BULLETIN AND THE SEC/TSE DISCLOSURE DOCUMENT。
