THE SECOND HALF OF THE US ENCRYPTION POLICY: THE CLARITY ACT CLOSED 60 VOTES, AND THE CFTC “ONE-MAN COMMITTEE” BECAME THE BIGGEST VARIABLE

Original author: Cleve Mesidor (Executive Director, Washington DC Block Chain Foundation)

Original: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

The encryption industry is also looking forward to its own high-light moments during this sports season, which is full of Cinderella’s insurgencies — the Clarity Bill being advanced by the United States Senate, which may become the key “comeback”. However, two quarters before the end of the whistle, with 60 votes, the Republicans may need to reach a compromise with the White House on ethical issues, bringing together several Republican senators who are still waiting。

It's only halftime, six months a year, and everything is possible. In essence, legislative victories and field scores are not different and multiple factors need to be aligned. Sometimes it doesn't hurt to have some rattails to pray for good — as the New York Knicks show this year。

The second half of the policy year will be a critical period for intensive consultations between the two parties in both chambers. Looking beyond the lens, market structure legislation is only part of a larger script aimed at establishing a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for Web3 and DeFi。

The parliamentary calendar is full, with just over 40 legislative working days — even with lame ducks and mid-term elections — leaving time for parties to prepare and adjust their scores。

A crowded policy field

IN ADDITION TO THE PROSPECTS OF THE CLARITY BILL, MANY OF THE ENCRYPTED TAX PROPOSALS THAT WERE REMOVED FROM THE NEW PARITY BILL, WOULD IT BE POSSIBLE TO TAKE A LARGER PIECE OF LEGISLATION, THE “SLOW DRIVE”, TO LAND THIS YEAR

Can the central language of the Blockchain Regulatory Certinity Act be translated into a long-term "Hail Mary" to formalize the protection of developers into law

IN ADDITION, THE ENTIRE SCENE SURROUNDING THE GENUIS RULES IS STILL UNDER WAY AND KEY PROVISIONS REMAIN TO BE FINALIZED。

For an encryption lover, it's like a sports fan chasing a whole season: a rich card base, a constant suspense, exciting and tense。

CFTC MISSING A STARTER

The absence of four commissioners from a financial regulatory body is a source of deep concern within the industry. For the encryption industry, this has had a direct impact on the expectations of Washington's operations — uncertainty remains as to whether the new Commissioner will complete his or her nomination and confirmation this year。

WHAT IS MORE DIFFICULT IS WHO WILL WIN THE COMPETITION FOR JURISDICTION OVER THE PREDICTED MARKET? ARE THEY THE CANTONS, OR ARE THEY THE COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION (CFTC) AND THE SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (SEC)? OR IS IT FINALLY DECIDED BY THE SUPREME COURT

Of course, it's not implying you're going to bet。

The encryption champion is about to retire

Regardless of the outcome of the final policy, the rate for the rest of the year will be mixed. Two heavyweight "encrypted champions" are about to take off the federal government's jersey, and their departure will have both short- and long-term implications: SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce and United States Senator Cynthia Lummis。

As a two-year Commissioner, Peirce has led the SEC encryption task force and has been the central architect of coordination efforts across regulators. Lummis, in turn, chairs the Senate Committee on Banking Committee ' s subcommittee on digital assets, is a key negotiator of the two parties ' compromise and a strong advocate of BRCA。

The second half of the year: what about industry leaders? Look

I INTERVIEWED SEVERAL SENIOR INDUSTRY LEADERS ABOUT THEIR JUDGMENT REGARDING THE CURRENT ENCRYPTION POLICY REVIEW. HERE ARE THEIR VIEWS ON CLARITY, TAXES AND FORECAST MARKETS:

Sara K. Weed (Gubson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP partner):

"IT IS UNDENIABLE THAT WE ARE MOVING STEADILY IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF THE SHORTAGE OF LEGISLATIVE WORKDAYS AND THE PRESSURE OF ELECTIONS, THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT CLARITY WILL PASS THROUGH THE CURRENT CONGRESS. AS A RESULT, INSTITUTIONS SUCH AS SEC AND CFTC WILL BE FORCED TO PLAY A MORE ACTIVE ROLE IN PROVIDING MUCH-NEEDED CERTAINTY TO THE INDUSTRY. THE QUESTION, OF COURSE, IS HOW FAR THEY CAN GO UNDER THEIR EXISTING COMPETENCE.”

Sullit “Raj” Mukherjee (Bodin Advisory CEO):

“If history provides a reference, meaningful encrypted tax legislation is most likely not adopted in the form of an independent bill, but embedded in a broader tax, budget or end-of-year package of legislation. Many of the current proposals are relatively focused and have a bipartisan consensus aimed at addressing specific issues, such as minimum exemptions, pledge tax treatment, rules for the sale of goods and information reporting requirements. These provisions are easier to move forward when attached to the major bills that must be adopted. Ultimately, the landing depends on the allocation of effort by Congress, the scoring mechanism, and whether legislators see encrypted tax rules as technical repairs to improve compliance rather than a larger digital asset policy debate. The opportunity for at least one or two of these measures to become law this year is real, but it is likely that they will be adopted by way of packing rather than by means of an independent encrypted tax bill

Rashan Colbert (Crypto Council for Information)

"I WILL NOT PREDICT HOW THE COURT WILL RESOLVE JURISDICTIONAL DISPUTES, BUT THE GENERAL DIRECTION IS CLEAR: AS THE FORECAST MARKET CATEGORY MATURES, THE CTC IS WORKING TO CREATE A MORE SUSTAINABLE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK FOR IT. THE RECENTLY RELEASED NPRM IS ANOTHER STEP TOWARDS PROVIDING GREATER TRANSPARENCY AND LEGAL CERTAINTY TO MARKET PARTICIPANTS — A FIELD IN WHICH USER SIZE AND VOLUME OF TRANSACTIONS ARE GROWING RAPIDLY。

The central question was whether markets should be projected primarily as financial market infrastructure or whether they should be broadly classified as lottery. I believe that these markets have the potential to become complex tools for expressing views, hedge risks and streamlining access to events and asset derivatives. The adoption of an overly broad framework for gambling may stifle the potential of markets before they have the opportunity to develop into a positive and financial infrastructure.”

The second half of the encryption policy has opened a curtain and a window of time has been blocked, but the window of opportunity still exists. The industry needs sustained cross-party communication and practical impetus to achieve substantive results in 2026。