Dialogue NDV founder Jason Huaang: Breaking the AI Foam and Microtactic Myth, Looking for the Ultimate of Encrypted Market Bottom Cards

AuthorZenium Wu said the chain

 

This time, Wu said the podcast invitationNDVThe founder, Jason Huang, discussed the recent decline in bitcoin, the micro-strategy currency sale event, macro-market risks and opportunities in the encryption industry. According to Jason, the first half of the fall in encryption in the current round came mainly from the inertial depression of the four-year bitcoon cycle, and in the recent past has begun to fold factors such as the US-American stock reversal, liquidity contraction and micro-strategic debt pressures. He's judging that the market isn't really bottomed out yetFTXCatalytic events at the crash level have led to widespread despair and no discussion。

In terms of investment strategies, Jason indicated that his second tranche of the fund, which had generated more than 20 points this year, was involved in large trades in commodities such as oil, gold and silver, in addition to encrypted assets. He was cautious about AI equities, arguing that he was a heavy AI user but lacked trading advantage, and was concerned about the risks of crowded trading and foam behind the US stock, semiconductor and SpaceX heat. Unlike the pessimism of short-term markets, he still sees the encryption industry. MediumStable currencyThe long-term value of a stable currency is considered one of the clearest and most realistic innovations in the field of encryption, and there is scope for greater penetration in the future。

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https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episode/6a35471543a22a6955866335

MICRO-SELLING TRIGGERS A RUN, BTC FALLS INTO A LIQUIDITY RUN

Cat: In the last podcast, you decided that the encryption market in 2026 might have been a little more tuned. Bitcoin's been falling lately. Do you think this is the same thing you did? Besides, what do you think of your position? I see you mentioned on Twitter the vicinity of $48,000。

Jason: $48,000 is not necessarily at the bottom. I was not actually too specific at the time because the logic of each fall was different. Until recently, especially these two days, I didn't think that the fall had really begun to meet my September expectations。

THE FIRST HALF IS MORE LIKE A BITCOIN SALE UNDER A FOUR-YEAR CYCLE. MANY LONG-TERM TRADERS LEAVE THE CYCLE NODES, TRIGGERING TRAMPLING. AT THE SAME TIME, THE U.S. STOCK HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN I EXPECTED, BUT I THINK IT IS JUST BEGINNING. IN THIS CONTEXT, IF YOU HOLD BTC ORIBITRecovery liquidity is often preferred。

Besides, I didn't think soMSTRIt can last so long. It was not until recently that its flying wheel mechanism really started to get into trouble. So I think the fall in this round is likely to be greater than market expectations。

Cat: The drop in the concentration of bitcoin over the last two days was, in a way, a micro-strategic initiative. Because it actually sold only 32 bitcoins, but the market reacted very well. Some analysts think it's more like testing market elasticity, and things are still within the control of micro-strategy. What do you think

Jason: I disagree. Many people think that the founder is too strong, as if he could control everything, but not really. In many cases, entrepreneurs can judge only in uncertainty as they face the future。

The micro-strategy was based on borrowing, priority equity, and the purchase of bitcoin through additional stocks. This model will work in the rising cycle, as the increase in currency prices will cover interest and dividends, with a premium on the share price and a positive wheel。

But when bitcoin falls rapidly and the equity price turns from premium to discount while paying real interest and dividends, the mechanism becomes a negative cycle。

I think micro-strategy is a little out of hand. It had prepared about $2 billion in cash to cover its priority dividends for the next two years, but it had subsequently pre-processed a reversible debt due in 2029, costing about $1.2 billion, leaving only four months of the initial buffer period of two years。

In such cases, it either defaults on bonds, defaults on preferential shares or sells currency. The sale of the 32 bitcoins has in fact made it clear that it made the choice: first to protect the creditors, then the shareholders, and finally to hold the bitcoin。

It's not this 32 bitcoin that the market is really worried about, but it's got more than 800,000 bitcoins. There is concern about the subsequent increased potential pressure on sales。

AND IT'S NOT JUST IT, BUT SOME OF THE BIG HOLDERS HAVE BEEN SELLING IT LATELY, BECAUSE WE ALL KNOW THAT MSTR IS THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL PUSH. BETTER RUN THAN WAIT FOR IT TO DO IT. SO IT'S GOING DOWN, BASICALLY THE MARKET IS RUNNING MTR。

Next, it will be crucial to see how micro-strategies will address debt and priority dividends over the next four months. It has to be dealt with, but the way is not certain. If there were those who were willing to take over a large amount of bitcoin at a discount to prevent it from continuing to sell on the market, then I think that position would be at the bottom of the stage because it restored its capacity to pay。

Cat: But since it has decided to sell money to pay priority interest, why not sell more at a time, instead of just this small amount, and release a signal so that the market can run ahead of it

Jason: This is the judgment of the founders at this critical moment. He might have felt that if too much was sold at a time, the market would be more panicful; rather than sell a little less, one signal to the market on the one hand and the preferred investors on the other. It's just that the final judgment got out of hand。

It would not have been possible to discuss it extensively, and he would have had to prejudge how the market would read it, and then decide on the basis of what was considered the best judgement at the time。

And we cannot prove today whether the market response would have been better had he sold more at once. Since the market's interpretation of information was dynamic, he had only one choice and could not be tested repeatedly。

Fund income, bulk commodity layout and inflation transaction judgement

Cat: When we first started talking, you mentioned being empty. This round of bitcoin is falling. Shouldn't it be good for you? What's the overall status of your second tranche

Jason: This year's payout will be better than the half-conductor, the AI, about 20 points. Bitcoin dropped by more than 30 percent overall this year, and we're doing about 20 percent of the positive, so we're about to win 50 to 60 percent of bitcoin. The last period of the fund was about 60 percent of bitcoin -- 70 percent, and now it looks like we've got hope of going beyond that

CAT: SO YOUR STRATEGY FOR THIS ISSUE IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE FIRST ISSUE, OR IS IT ABOUT BITCOIN AND ENCRYPTION-RELATED ASSETS, WITHOUT TOUCHING AI-RELATED PRODUCTS OR STOCKS, RIGHT

Jason: AI did not touch. Frankly, I'm a little sorry myself. Because I'm a heavy AI user, paying for almost all the good things that can be paid for, and then I don't buy the assets in question, it's a little bit inconsistent。

But this year we did something else, like oil, gold, silver. Like yesterday, some of the proceeds came from making blank silver. Because I think precious metals and encrypted assets have a similar trade logic, both supply- and demand-driven, event-driven and highly leveraged, but at a slower pace and easier to analyse。

So this year we've distracted a part of our energy to big commodities. Overall, I think that big commodities are at a more interesting stage. In addition to precious metals, another major theme this year is inflation. Oil may be the first wave, but it is slowly transmitted back to other products。

CAT: I'VE BEEN TALKING TO PEOPLE LATELY ABOUT INFLATION. THE VIEW WAS EXPRESSED THAT THE PRODUCTIVITY GAINS RESULTING FROM AI COULD RESULT IN DEFLATION TO SOME EXTENT. WHAT DO YOU THINK

Jason: Prices, at least for now, do not clearly reflect deflation. I also agree that AI did go against some inflation, but many of the consumption in the real world doesn't disappear because of AI。

Higher oil prices, for example, directly push up logistics and production costs. Fuel surcharges in airline tickets are a direct example, and the pressure will continue to spread to more areas。

AND I THINK THAT THE DEFLATION THAT AI BRINGS IS MORE AT THE JOB LEVEL, THAT IS, IT CAN CREATE UNEMPLOYMENT. THE REALITY IS NOT THAT ALL PEOPLE ARE MORE COMFORTABLE BECAUSE OF AI, BUT MORE LIKE RICH PEOPLE MAKING MORE MONEY THROUGH AI-RELATED ASSETS, WHILE ORDINARY PEOPLE ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE FROM RISING INFLATION AND LIVING COSTS。

The political system in the United States would eventually adjust the problem, for example by reallocating it to ease the tension. But if that is the case, inflation may be more pronounced。

So now the nature of market transactions is the paradox: whether inflation comes first or AI delivers on the promise of efficiency and low cost. For the time being, the AI line is still stronger, but things like SpaceX are likely to drain market liquidity further。

So many directions may end up coming out, but the hardest part for transactions is never to judge direction, but the point of time, the tool, the way in which they are involved。

Cat: Besides the fund, I see you're doing a project related to the ball card. I've heard you talk about this before, but I don't understand. Because I don't really see football, basketball or card cards, I'd like to ask you briefly what this market is and how it works。

Jason: In short, a very standardized way to “invest one person” or “invest one IP”. It has a fixed distribution mechanism, which does not increase indefinitely, because it loses value. It is thus essentially a limited supply, long-term market。

I ALWAYS FELT THAT SPORTS AND ANIMATION IPS WERE CONSUMER GOODS FOR THIS GENERATION. WHEN YOUNG PEOPLE ARE YOUNG, THEY LIKE A STAR, ANIMATORS, AND WHEN THEY GROW UP, THEY ARE WILLING TO PAY FOR THEM. THIS IS THE KIND OF THING THAT COMES OUT OF THIS LOGIC. IT HAS BOTH COLLECTION AND INVESTMENT PROPERTIES, AND IT HAS TO DO WITH PLAYER PERFORMANCE, GROWTH AND PERSONAL CHARM。

CAT: BUT FROM AN OUTSIDER'S POINT OF VIEW, IT'S KIND OF LIKE THE NFT OF THE DAY, LIKE THE IP, THE FRAGMENTATION DEAL. WHAT'S THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND NFT

Jason: It's very different. Many NFT projects were distributed and circulated, made too much money, and there was no incentive to continue operating IP. But the cards are not the same, and behind them are truly long-run sports alliances and mature IPs, which continue to create interest, so the market base is completely different。

STABLE CURRENCY, AI FOAM AND ENCRYPTED BEAR BASE JUDGEMENT

Cat: What do you think a lot of exchanges are predicting the market for? Many also believe that forecasting markets may be one of the most important directions for the encryption industry in the coming period. What do you think

Jason: On the face of it, the market is projected to provide a model of trade in which everyone is willing to participate; but the deeper reason is the spread of stable currency and wallets, which significantly lowers the threshold for new exchanges. A centralized exchange deals with a set of high-cost issues such as KYC, user management, fund hosting, hacking and regulation, but a platform like Polymarket, where funds remain in the user ' s own wallet, is only a setup. This represents not just forecasting markets, but the emergence of a new type of exchange. It follows from this logic that the future of the Centralized Exchange will be hit hard。

CAT: YOU'RE A HEAVY AI USER, BUT NEITHER THE INDIVIDUAL NOR THE FUND BUYS THE AI RELATED STOCK. WHY

Jason: On the one hand, many of the products I really use are not on the market; on the other hand, I don't usually touch areas where I have no trading advantage. I understand software better, but the market is the most aggressive of hardware chains, such as light modules, semiconductors, which I have not done enough research to fill, so I'm not involved。

CAT: SO DID THE AI HARDWARE STOCK FALL RECENTLY, YOU THINK IT WAS JUST A NORMAL TURN-BACK, OR WAS THE FOAM STILL EARLY

Jason: I can't judge because there's not enough research. But that's too much for a short time, so it's normal to return. It's hard to say how deep it will fall. The faster it rises, the faster it falls, because there must be a lot of speculative money in it。

Cat: What do you think

Jason: I've been most concerned about semiconductors recently, and the deal is already very crowded, and I think the stage rise is almost over. As for the 20 per cent or 30 per cent, it's hard to say, but this crowded trade tends to turn from one thing to another。

CAT: WHICH ONE OF THE RISKS IS BETTER NOW THAN AI

Jason: I don't think the encryption market has finished washing cards, and it's hard to get real in the short term. Many people fall for reasons of optimism, but in terms of supply and demand and panic, I cannot yet see the real bottom. It's probably not far from the bottom in time, but I don't think it's there yet, at least $60,000。

CAT: SO IT'S NOT THE FTX STAGE

Jason: Not at all. A true bear base often requires a landmark event that gives the market an “encrypted” mood. It doesn't have to be some kind of exchange down, but at least there's a big player down there。Now we're just falling apart, not really desperate. The real bottom is usually when you and everyone around you suffer so much that you don't want to look at the market anymore。

Cat: Many people now have a pessimism about the encryption industry itself, and feel like they haven't made anything really new for years。

Jason: I don't agree. Stabilizing money is a definite result. It really did “fast and better”, which is the clearest innovation direction I understand. And I like this track because it's low penetration. As long as market space is far from over, it is not surprising that a few new players will grow in the future。

Cat: Did you just mention that the lack of interest in the equity is due to the overall macro-paste

Jason: I just don't think it makes sense to just keep going. Market sentiment is now a little overheated, and even ordinary people think it's better to go to the stock market, a stage that is usually dangerous. It's not just America, it's crazy under AI。

I also heard from an investor earlier that he took a good look at SpaceX's listings and felt like a company about to go bankrupt. I thought later, it wasn't completely unreasonable. Mask told the story of SpaceX a lot, even that a lot of future income would come from AI, so it's better to buy OpenAI. So I think the foam is pretty obvious。

AND IPOS ARE OFTEN THE LAST BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR FOUNDERS AND TEAMS TO GET THE MOST MONEY FROM THE MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM, AND THEY WILL OF COURSE TRY TO GET THE HOTTEST PART OF THE MARKET. MASK IS ALSO ONE OF THE MOST KNOWLEDGEABLE PEOPLE IN THE CAPITAL MARKET, AND HE NEVER MAKES A BAD DEAL. SO YOU'RE GOING TO SAY THAT YOU'RE GOING TO LEAVE A LOT OF PROFITS IN THE SECONDARY MARKET FOR ORDINARY INVESTORS。

Cat: You're a little reliant on the path now。

Jason: Yeah, it's like buying in and lying down makes money. I just think that inertia itself is dangerous。

The post-market judgment: once the real panic is clear, we'll consider the bottom line

Cat: In the end, please judge the performance of bitcoin and the Ether House for the next year. After all, you had a good prediction last year。

Jason:I couldn't even see the bottom of it。As for bitcoin, if you look at a year's dimension, I think the final price may be the same as it is now, but the process is likely to fall first and then rebound sharply. In other words, while time may be close to the bear base, the fall may not be in place and $48,000 may not hold。

Cat: So you're more inclined to wait for the bottom of an event

Jason: Yeah. The real bottom is usually accompanied by a landmark event. By that time, you'll know the market's in trouble without a disk, without the news. Like the FTX storm, that's the level。

Not yet. People are falling, but it's more like falling, not really panic. The real bear base often appears after the complete release of the panic, and no one wants to see the market again. At the bottom, it's clear afterwards, but now you don't usually want to buy it。

Cat: How do you convince yourself when everyone like that doesn't want to buy it

Jason: I still look at penetration and consensus proliferation. The story will not end as long as one thing has a network effect and is recognized by a small core of users, far from reaching the permeability ceiling. Bitcoin is like this, and so is the football card。

So I'll have a cognition anchor in my heart: is this thing early, or is the long-term space still there? It is a matter of trade at the level of what exactly to buy and how much to accept。

It's the most pessimistic time, not to keep staring. I think a very effective way to get out of the market, like traveling. Set your own price, buy it when you get there, and don't look. Because day-to-day gazing can affect emotions and interfere with judgment. Stay away from noise is more important for long-term possession。