Encrypted Market Macro Review: Geopolitical “Steward Plan” and Macro Liquidity “Austerity Trap”

I. Geopolitics"Stewards": Tremper's "transformation" and Holmuze

2026YearThreeThe situation in the Middle East during the month became a core variable for destabilizing global risk assets。ThreeMonth21On that day, United States President Trump issued an “ultimatum” to Iran calling for Iran48Opening the Strait of Hormuz within an hour would destroy Iran's “various power stations”. The Iranian side responded strongly that, once the United States had acted, energy and oil installations throughout the Middle East would be considered legitimate targets. However, as the deadline came to an endThreeMonth23It is a dramatic announcement that the United States will “delay five days” on Iran's power station, and claims that the US-Iraq dialogue over the last two days has been “very good and productive” and has formed points of agreement。

This oneBehind the “temporaries” is a reflection of the multiple pressures on the United States Government. First, continued fighting has pushed global oil prices up to110United States dollarsI'm sorryAbove the barrel, the average retail price of American gasoline is approaching per gallonFourUnited States dollars, +TwoAt the end of the month, the increase was higherOneThe dollar has directly exacerbated domestic inflationary pressures. Secondly, high oil prices pose a threat to the midterm election, and the American conservative think tank Heritage Foundation warns that if fighting continues to escalate, the Democrats may “take control of Congress” in the midterm elections. In addition, the Gulf allies of the United States have privately warned Trump that the bombing of the Iranian power plant could lead to “a catastrophic escalation”. Together, these factors have contributed to the easing of Trump ' s position。

However, there is a fundamental disagreement between the official statements of the United States and Iraq. The spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Baghae, has made it clear that Iran has not held any negotiations with the United States and has received only some messages from friendly countries over the past few days. The Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Kalibaf himself, denied any negotiations with the United States. This contradiction has caused the market to be extremely vigilant– This is probably a “suspendant strategy”, as the Central Party Institute of International Strategic Studies has analysed20Many days of air strikes, the United States missile stocks may be insufficient and require time to replenish; on the other hand, the U.S. military-led military-led missile fleets will be in short supply31The Marine Expedition will beThreeMonth27The arrival of the day in the Middle East coincided with the renewed deadline set by Trump。

For the energy market and the encrypted market, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz is at the heart of pricing. This global oil transportThe throat carries the promise20%Global energy flows. Iranian officials have made it clear that the Strait of Hormuz will not return to pre-war status and that the energy market will remain unstable for long periods. The market reacted quickly: Brent crude continued to hover110It's near the US dollarWTIThe oil is steady100Above the dollar。WintermuteAccording to a market analysis, the United States suspended the news of a five-day strike on Iran's energy infrastructure, reducing the geopolitical risk premium in the short term, leading to a fall in Brent's crude oil prices and the subsequent rebound of Bitcoin70,000Above the dollar. But whether this “mitigation” is a temporary window or an escalation trap, the market remains highly uncertain。

 

II. US Federal ReserveEagle claws and the stagnating shadow: the expected significant retreat of interest rate reductions

Just as geopolitical disturbances intensified, the monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve further tightened macroeconomic liquidity expectations. Beijing TimeThreeMonth19Early in the morning, the Fed announcedThreeThe monthly meeting decided to maintain the policy rate at3.5%to3.75 per centNo change, consistent with market expectations. However, the dot map releases a clear Eagle signal:19bitFOMCMembers, yesSevenProjected2026It won't fall12Monthly increaseOne(b) People; the number of members supporting more than a one-time reduction has decreased markedly. The medium projection shows that2026It is possible that the annual rate of interest will be reduced only once2027Once a year, the final interest rate is stable3.1%About long-term levels。

Of even greater concern is the significant increase in inflation expectations made by the Fed, which will2026Fourth quarter of the yearPCEInflation from2.4 per centRedeployment2.7%CorePCESynchronize Up0.2Percentage point. This adjustment directly reflects the impact of the Middle East conflict in pushing up oil prices. Powell acknowledged at the press conference that “the rise in energy prices is having a direct impact on the outlook for central banks” and stressed that “energy inflation cannot be ignored lightly”. He made it clear that interest rates would not be considered until inflation had progressed. Discussions have even begun within the Commission on the possibility of a further increase, although this is not a benchmark scenario for most officials。

Stay closeFOMCAfter the meetingThreeMonth24United States of AmericaThreeMonthly procurement manager indexPMIData further exacerbates market stagnation concerns. Data show that the slowdown in business activity in the United States is accompanied by yet another acceleration of price pressures — a combination of weak economic growth and persistent inflation. The market reacted negatively:5The annual rate of return on national debt was pushed up to nine months4.10%The NASDAQ index is down1.5%Bitcoin went down once70,900United States dollars. Even more disturbing for the market, the bond market futures show that the Fed isSevenThe hidden probability of a monthly increase is approaching a week ago0%Up to20.5%I don't know。

This macro environment imposes double constraints on encrypted assets. On the one hand, the high-interest rate environment stifled the expansion of the valuation of risky assets; on the other hand, the persistence of inflation meant that the Fed had no room for easing. Powell noted, in particular, that the conflict in the Middle East posed a downside risk to the economy and employment and an upward risk to inflation“Two-way tension” has put monetary policy in jeopardy. For the encrypted market, this means that it is difficult to expect the release of liquidity from monetary policy in the short term, and markets must rely on endogenous forces and structural narratives to support prices。

 

III. Fragmentation of institutional funds: BitcoinETFThe resiliencevsThe Ether's Trail

Against the background of continuing macro-pressures, institutional financial flows are characterized by sharp divisions. As ofThreeMonth22Data for the week, bitcoin in the United StatesETFNet inflows recorded9310$ million, maintained positive inflow for the second consecutive week, with total net assets reached903Billion dollars. This figure contrasts with previous market concerns - right nowThreeMid-term, bitcoinETFThere was a single day7.08Billions of dollars went out, the largest in two months. But instead of withdrawing, the agency has increased its configuration in the event of market panic. BeletIBITNet one-week inflows1.90A billion dollars, a major inflow。

In stark contrast to bitcoin, the ETA is availableETFNet outflows recorded during the same period6000US$ 000, of which BeletETHAOut6960$ million. This dichotomy of financial flows is directly reflected in price performance:ThreeBack in the second half of the month74,500It's near the dollar, and the Ether is falling2,180United States dollar level6%I don't know. What is more worrying is the leverage structure of the Taifeng market - According toCryptoQuantData75%It is leveraged, a state of high leverage that makes the Etherpo particularly vulnerable in the face of negative financial flows。

Behind the differences in institutional preferences are two distinct investment logics. Bitcoin is being considered by the agencyThe scarcity of alternatives to the “digital gold” and macroshock instruments and the structure of supply and demand after halving are more in line with the logic of traditional asset allocation. Morgan Stanley's Global Investment Commission even recommended that the largest share of the model portfolio be encrypted4%And the Bank of America1%to4%. And the Etherwood is more considered a "technology asset" or a "technology asset."betaAssets, which often bear the brunt in an environment of economic uncertainty and high interest rates。

Another sign of interest is that despite bitcoinETFNet inflows continued, while market sentiment indicators were in a state of “extreme fear”。CoinglassCompiled data30Oh, God25Skymarket sentiment is at a level of “extreme fear”. This institution buys a pattern that coexists with the fear of the diaspora, creating a typical “wall of concern” (see parawall of worryI don't know。Apollo CriptoResearch OfficerPratik KalaIt was noted that “historically, these regions have been excellent bitcoin silos”. Institutional funds appear to be taking advantage of market panic for orderly ingestion。

 

IV. Macroposition of Bitcoin: a risk asset or a risk avoidance asset

The geopolitical shock of this round provides the latest test scene for the asset properties of Bitcoin. The traditional logic is that geo-conflicts should drive financial flows to gold, bitcoin, etc“Asset avoidance assets”. I don't knowThreeMarket performances following the escalation of the situation in the Middle East during the month subverted this narrative: the golden experience1983The biggest week down in the years10%Cash gold almost wiped out all the increases in the last year. Bitcoin is the sameThreeMonth23Daytime drops to two weeks low67,371The United States dollar was then triggered by the “delay strike” news。

This trend of synchronized decline reveals the current core positioning of bitcoin— It remains a risk asset rather than a mature risk avoidance asset. Encrypted Currency ExchangeOKXGlobal Management PartnerHaider RafiqueIt was pointed out that “the new narrative logic of Bitcoin's “new sharp safe haven” is often tested by weeks of sharp volatility, especially since its trade price trends in the recent past have more to do with fluctuations in risk assets than in reverse”. YesThreeDuring the month's market turmoil, Bitcoin showed a clear positive correlation with US and Asian stock markets, which contrasted with its ideal positioning as “digital gold”。

However, bitcoin showed some resilience compared to the stock market。ThreeBitcoin has been on the rise since the month4%And the NASDAQ index fell more than during the same period5%I don't know. This relative performance can be attributed to two factors: the continued inflow of institutional funds, which provides price support; and the supply-end structure of Bitcoin (deficient after halving) and demand-side (which, in the case of the latter, can be reduced by half)ETFThe institutional configuration of the channels) provides a unique micro-base. In other words, the price of bitcoin is moving from a purely macro-driven to a "macro."+Institutional supply and demand” dual-wheel drive。

Another key variable is the relationship between oil prices and bitcoin。Based onWintermuteThe analytical framework states that the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is channelled through oil prices to Bitcoin prices. The logical chain is that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by rising oil prices and rising inflation, which are expected to keep the Fed from maintaining a fall in its tight risk asset envelope. As a result, Bitcoin rebounded following the recent announcement by Trump of a “delayed strike”, confirming this transmission mechanism. If oil prices are stable100In the vicinity of the United States dollar, instead of a further surge, bitcoin may benefit from the “controllability” of geo-risk。

 

V. Outlook: three pathways and key observations

Combined geopolitical and macro-liquid variables, the future1-2The monthly encrypted market may evolve along three scenario paths, each corresponding to different price ranges and configuration strategies。

Scenario one: the situation continues to ease and oil prices are stable。 If Trump's..“Delaying strike” is truly translated into an ongoing diplomatic negotiation process, with the gradual normalization of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the expected stabilization of Brent crude oil100Around the dollar. Under these circumstances, the geo-risk premium has declined, the inflationary pressures on the Fed have been mitigated and risk assets have been given breathing space。WintermuteIt is expected that bitcoin will be tested74,000to76,000United States dollar resistance zone. If the agency continues with low buy-in, it may even push bitcoin up to80,000United States dollars. Key observations in this scenario include:ThreeMonth27The choice of action after the arrival of the US-United States reinforcements in the Middle East, whether the US-Iraq parties have resumed indirect negotiations, and whether the US retail price for gasoline is going to pay offFourThe dollar is falling back。

Scenario two: the situation deteriorated again and the conflict escalated。 Trump'sThe “suspension strategy” may simply be to gain lead time for military operations。ThreeMonth27By the end of the deadline, if the reinforcements of the United States forces are put in place to take tougher action, Iran may meet its threat of “blocking the Strait of Hormuz”. In this situation, oil prices could break120United States dollars, even140In the United States dollar, global inflation is expected to rise sharply, forcing the Fed to tighten further its monetary policy. Bitcoin could come back65,000U.S. dollar, even testing60,000The US dollar psychological closure. In this scenario, the market will repeat the full “Black Monday” sale, and the same-way fluctuations between Bitcoin and venture assets will be further reinforced。

Scenario three: Stagnating and deepening, macro-dominated。 Whatever the evolution of the situation in the Middle East, the stagnating features of the United States economy that have emerged may be the dominant factor。ThreeMonthPMIThe data show that slower growth coexists with higher prices, while the Federal Reserve Point Array shows that2026The interest rate is reduced only once a year. If this pattern of “stagulation” continues to deepen, the Fed may be in full swing2026The interest rate is maintained and even the increase is reconsidered. In this macro-environment, bitcoin will face double pressures of valuation compression and liquidity tightening, but structural factors (the halving effectETFChannels, institutional configurations) may provide hedges. The market will enter "macro pressure"vsThe bottom-up phase of the institution maintains high volatility。

With regard to key observation nodes, investors need to pay close attention to the following time points and indicators:ThreeMonth27The evolution of the situation following the arrival of the Japanese-United States reinforcements in the Middle East is the first window to test the authenticity of Trump's “temporary strategy”; the second is the weekly release of United States inflation dataCPI/PCE(iii) BitcoinETFSustainability of financial flows, in particular to BeletIBITThe inflow intensity of front-line products; fourthly, micro-indicators such as the actual navigational status of the Strait of Hormuz and oil tanker premiums are more reflective of real risks than official statements。

In general2026YearThreeMonth's encrypted market is at a crossroads between geopolitical and macro-liquidity. The Trump Government's “suspendant strategy” provides a short breathing window for the market, but differences between the positions of the United States and Iraq mean that the conflict is far from over. The Fed ' s hawk stance and stagnating shadows constitute continued repression at the macro level. In such an environment, bitcoin shows unique resilience. • The continued inflow of institutional funds is reshaping its supply and demand structure and keeping it relatively strong in risk assets. However, it is still too early to assert that Bitcoin has evolved into a mature risk avoidance asset, which remains the main feature in the short term, as opposed to the parallel fluctuations in the venture assets. For investors, the key in the coming weeks is to distinguish between “real easing” and “fake stations” and to find a balance between geo-risk premiums and macro-liquidity. Like..WintermuteThe analysis suggests that the fate of the Strait of Hormuz may become a “guideline” for the short-term price movement of bitcoin。