The editor said the block chain
The round table discussion on Hong Kong and Mainland policy at the Asian Digital Finance Summit was attended by guests, Colin Wu, Executive Director of the OSL Group and CEO Kevin Cui, Senior Adviser to the Chairman of Wahing Capital, Patrick Pan, and the Executive Director of New Fire Technology and CEO Leo Weng。
The guests explored the impact of policy changes in Hong Kong and the Mainland on the Web3 industry, particularly the market performance of innovative financial instruments such as Bitcoin, Stabilizing Currency and DAT (Data Asset Bank), and analysed whether the current market was in a critical period of transition from cattle to bear, as well as the market prospects and challenges of DAT in the context of price fluctuations in the United States share and Bitcoin, and policy constraints on stabilizing currencies. The guests also shared different policy trends in the encryption industry in Hong Kong and the Mainland, as well as positive signs of gradual deregulation and financial innovation in Hong Kong。
Is the market at a turning point
Colin: It is true that the market has reached an expected turning point that many believe. Yesterday, for example, the co-founder of the AllanceDAO thought that the vast majority of traders and institutions around him were beginning to look away. In the last two days, especially in the last 12 hours, there has also been a certain decline. Is it felt that the industry is at a turning point, or is it just a short drop, and that it may then return to the cattle market
Kevin: First, state that this is not a financial recommendation. It's been a long time since I've had a contract deal, and if it's a lever, you'll have to look at risks. We had a sentence earlier called “ cherishing life, away from contract ” On the market, I personally believe that there are no signs of a shift from cattle to bear. If bitcoin falls below $100,000, I personally think it's a buy-in opportunity. Because, in the long term, the growth of the market has not changed, as is my personal view。
Patrick: My view of the market is that the cycle of this round is very different. As you know, bitcoin is essentially the wind of the whole market, which is largely following its cycle. In general, every four-year cycle, before we said & ldquo; & rdquo; i.e. one year of cattle and three years of bear. But I think the current cycle may be different. Because of the policies of the Trump government as a whole, and as you know, policies such as the Genius Act, I generally judge that the market is more balanced in terms of its cycles, perhaps rather than in terms of traditional “ and in terms of three & rdquo。
So I now think the market is in the middle of the bull market. Now there is neither the highest nor the lowest point, and everyone will be more cautious. The central point is not to go up, and if the market reverses, it is a very good opportunity. This is my judgment about the market。
Livio: We have a fairly consistent view that the market cannot have entered the bear market completely, and the cow market has not ended. More likely, after a rapid increase, the market needs to stop and enter the concussion phase. At the macro level, the total amount of securitized currency is growing, and other countries, such as sovereign funds, listed companies and mainstream institutions, are buying it. At the same time, the Fed’s interest-rate reduction policy has continued, not so bad at the macro level, and other assets, such as US stock and gold, have performed well。
However, the encryption industry still faces problems. On the one hand, the large-scale upheavals of the past led to markets going up too fast, for example, from over $1,000 to nearly $5,000 in the Ether. Such a rapid increase would allow early low-cost investors to start cashing their profits, which is a corollary of the market, without which it would rise forever。
In addition, the industry faces enormous impacts. For example, the recent collapse has led to a reduction in the overall warehouse value of the industry and a significant reduction in liquidity. A number of core institutions and centrifugal forces have been squeezed, which directly affects market liquidity. This was followed by a series of problems within the industry, including the theft of Balancer and Stream, which had a negative impact on the health of the industry. At the same time, an important factor is the frequent operation of whale investors in the chain and the involvement of certain political forces in influencing market dynamics。
These factors have made many of the smart money that was intended to enter the market hesitant. Many are beginning to fear that they may be targeted by political forces to manipulate the market, and that major changes may take place at any time leading to market collapses, a change in confidence that has a significant impact on the entire industry. However, according to recent data, the Panic Greed Index has fallen to more than 20, which usually means that markets have been overstretched and that many smart money may see a healthy investment opportunity at this point. So, fear coexists with greed, and sometimes extreme sentiment in the market may offer an opportunity to rebound, and, as Patrick mentioned earlier, the market still has a chance to rise, just to take some time to adjust。
Back to Patrick, that doesn't mean that the bear has turned around and that the future of Bulls and Bears may be broken. In the past, cattle and bear markets were largely affected by the bi-currency halving cycle, while the market impact of the four-year cycle is now diminishing. The involvement of traditional capital also complicates markets, may become less visible in future cycles and may be more ambiguous for cattle and bear markets。
On the whole, I do not think that this is a particularly pessimistic market situation。
DAT OVERBLOWS AND MARKETS COOLING
Colin: We're going to talk about the DAT that you're interested in. We see that every Monday, Tom Lee's Bitmine is still buying madly, but prices in the Taicha continue to fall. Could Bitmine be the next micro-strategy
THE THREE GUESTS HERE ARE ALSO DEEPLY INVOLVED IN DAT-RELATED BUSINESS. DAT IS CURRENTLY THE SUBJECT OF MUCH DISCUSSION IN THE MARKET, AND THE FEEDBACK FROM REGULATORS VARIES, EVEN TOM LEE HIMSELF SAYING THAT DAT MAY HAVE REACHED THE POINT OF COLLAPSE. OF COURSE, HIS CONSISTENT RHETORIC IS MORE RADICAL. SO, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THIS STAGE, DAT? AFTER A FEVERISH DEVELOPMENT, DOES IT STILL HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITIES, OR HAS IT ENTERED A PHASE OF TRIUMPH
Livio: With DAT, I think there are two ways to look at it. First of all, DAT is indeed a new thing that was overstretched at the last stage, and after the cold, you see a lot of the hot money of the past being liquidated, and the market is sceptical. But by its very nature, DAT is still an important sector for Paretto improvement。
At the earliest, from 2013 to 2017 to 2018, you could only buy encrypted money through the exchange, which had a high threshold. Many people need to trust these platforms, even if they need to climb over walls to get in, and it is difficult to get in with funds。
AND THEN IN THE LAST TWO YEARS, THE EMERGENCE OF ETF MADE IT EASIER FOR TRADITIONAL CAPITAL TO ENTER THE MARKET. ALTHOUGH MANY FUNDS BELIEVE THAT ETFS ARE NOT WITHIN THEIR TRADABLE RANGE, LARGE AMOUNTS OF FUNDS AND TRADITIONAL FUNDS HAVE BEEN PURCHASED IN STOCK MARKETS IN LIEU OF CURRENCY, OR HAVE ACTED AS A LIGHT-QUANTIFIABLE PURCHASE ROUTE. THIS IS A BETTER ROUTE FOR TRADITIONAL INVESTORS。
As Shawwind once said, ETF is good, but DAT is better, and it can play a more important role, as demonstrated by companies like micro-strategy. Now, I think we're at the validation stage. DAT's upper space, at a particularly good time, many DAT's mNAV (market net asset value) will be several times, double or triple, indicating its premium. But when we go down, we need to focus on the downside risk of DAT. We have to verify that DAT will crash. If it survives this reversal, it will maintain a better premium in the future as the market recovers, which will prove its business model。
In the last few days, we can see if the MNAV of DAT's head is significantly lower than one, and if not, the business model of DAT will remain industry neutral and will have better opportunities in the future. In contrast, small, poorly liquid DATs may not survive in the market. Therefore, if you want to participate in DAT, it is recommended to select DAT for the head。
Patrick: I will also share briefly my views on DAT. I think DAT is a very important and innovative financial instrument that provides more proactive regulatory flexibility than directly holding money or buying ETFs. Despite some challenges to the overall development of DAT, particularly the complexity of its operation and management。
The biggest challenge, just mentioned by Livio, is whether DAT's mNAV will be below one, which is a very interesting question. Where is the value of DAT when the market value of a company is below its net value? But I think that, after analysis, DAT's mNAV can't stay too high for long, for example, if it stays at 2 or 3. Over time, DAT's mNAV will return to a reasonable premium level of about 30-50%。
DAT'S REASONABLE PREMIUM IS 30 TO 50 PERCENT, WHICH I PERSONALLY THINK IS ACCEPTABLE. IF MICRO-STRATEGIES CAN SUSTAIN THE PREMIUM, THEN THE MARKET HAS POTENTIAL. WE CAN ALSO SEE HOW DAT'S DEVELOPMENT WENT THROUGH SEVERAL STAGES。
IN THE FIRST STAGE, THE MICRO-STRATEGY CAN BE CONSIDERED A 1.0 VERSION OF DAT. PHASE 1.0, DAT IS ESSENTIALLY A SIMPLE FUND, WITH FEW PEOPLE INVOLVED, AND THE MAIN BUSINESS IS THE PURCHASE OF BITCOIN, ESPECIALLY WHEN OTHERS DO NOT BUY IT, WHICH MAKES IT SUPER HIGH。
FOR MANY FUND AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, THEY DO NOT REQUIRE MANAGERS TO TAKE DOWN MARKET RISKS AND CAN BE A VERY GOOD HEDGE TOOL IF THEY MAINTAIN A SUPER-OPTIMAL ATTITUDE. HOWEVER, WHEN BUSINESS CHANGES, THE LOSSES OF SUCH STRATEGIES TEND TO BE MUCH GREATER THAN THE DECLINE IN MARKETS. BITCOIN DROPPED 20%, IT COULD FALL 40% OR MORE. NEXT, DAT ENTERED THE 2.0 ERA。
DAT 2.0, from my point of view at least, we can consider DAT like Tom Lee's Solana, Etheum's Foundation 2.0. Unlike 1.0, version 2.0 adds functions such as staking, yaeld and passily income, making its operating model more attractive。
This approach is very different from the way in which Bitcoin invests, and the passive income it generates is usually sufficient to cover its operating costs, including legal and audit costs, so DAT does not need to sell additional shares to maintain operations. We see that companies like Tom Lee have been very successful in financing the US stock market, especially when NASDAQ is listed。
However, we also see that DAT's mNAV continues to decline, even below 1. This is more of a strategic consideration to prevent subsequent investors from entering phase 2.0. I think that if DAT is to move forward, more innovation is needed to break the current challenge. Simple staking and yield are not enough, it needs more business models to innovate, or it's just a fund. DAT will face more competition after the ETH status function is gradually realized。
I think DAT needs to go into version 3.0, or 2.0 Plus. After passive income and staking, other new income patterns are needed to maintain competitiveness. In general, I think DAT is now entering a phase of adjustment, and very much agrees with Livio that only head companies can survive。
if head companies are to survive, they need new business models. if you rely solely on the purchase of money and the stocking, the market may not accept it, and the premium will return to between 10 and 30 per cent, well below the net value of the directly held currency。
Kevin: Yeah, I think DAT is an innovative financial instrument. DAT provides more proactive management flexibility, including in financing and operation, than ETF, which is the bottom asset in encrypted currency. This flexibility has enabled it to have special needs in the stock market, particularly for enterprises that are subject to policy restrictions, which are unable to hold encrypted currencies directly or more securely。
SO, I THINK DAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE ITS NEEDS ON THE MARKET. AS A FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, IT HAS TWO SIDES. FIRST, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO OPERATE WELL; SECOND, IF YOU INVEST IN DAT, YOU NEED TO KNOW WHAT YOU VALUE. DIFFERENT DATS HAVE DIFFERENT ENCRYPTED ASSET BACKGROUNDS AND OPERATING MODELS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT FOR INVESTORS。
Likewise, I agree with the second point mentioned earlier by Patrik and Livio: the final result could be “ the two-eighth effect ” The companies that can do a great deal must be those that operate well and have good assets, which are limited in number. In the future, we may see more problems, such as the appearance of liars. The future may see DAT become more transparent, especially with regard to hosting and operating models, which may be an important direction for industry development。
Discussion on the impact of Hong Kong and Mainland policies on the Web3 industry
Colin: Let's move on to recent policy discussions. During the past six months, policy has changed considerably in Hong Kong and Mainland China. It can be said that Hong Kong's policy is relatively stable and is understood to be gradual, with some new provisions introduced each year in accordance with the plan, including a new interpretation or issuance yesterday, and some relaxation adjustments。
however, the policy performance of mainland china over the last six months has been some & ldquo; ice fires have been two-fold & rdquo; this extreme change has also affected the overall environment in hong kong to some extent. personally, almost all mainland companies and banks in hong kong have begun to set up stabilization currency-related teams to conduct research, apply, recruit and cooperate with unprecedented enthusiasm. but just overnight, the regulators may give instructions to each company, and these activities stop at once, and even now the whole atmosphere becomes a little bit more – idquo; over-reaction ” and you can't even talk about stabilization currency。
On the other hand, the overall policy direction in Hong Kong, including the enactment of laws and regulations, is relatively robust and solid. While some believe that the pace may not be fast enough, we see some progressive progress each year. That is cause for optimism. The next question, then, is to share your views on the policy changes that have taken place during this period, particularly with regard to the projections of possible policy trends in Hong Kong and Mainland China over the next six months or a year. Let's get Kevin to share。
Kevin: I cannot comment much on policies in China, but from Hong Kong's overall policy, while Hong Kong's policies may be less radical, we do see that Hong Kong's policies are becoming more open and more and more open to good international changes and trends。
This is a great pleasure for our companies in Hong Kong, especially for the Hong Kong and overseas-based services we provide. With the issuance yesterday of the policy of the Liquidity Sharing Orders Department, I am confident that better liquidity will be provided to all Hong Kong clients, which is undoubtedly a very positive development for Hong Kong ' s financial markets. From a holistic perspective, the progressive opening of Hong Kong ' s policy as the third largest global financial market is beneficial for the whole industry. Although Hong Kong’s regulatory policy is not necessarily very radical, we are pleased to see some positive changes every year。
Patrick: My judgement about future policy is that the central government has clearly positioned Hong Kong as an important policy high ground in the encryption industry. First, Hong Kong has acquired the right to issue VATP licences, and last year began a pilot stabilization currency, with the possibility of publishing the first list of stabilization currencies this year, and more VAOTC-like licences next year. As a result, Hong Kong has been recognized by the central Government as a policy centre for the region and even for the global encryption market, and Hong Kong ' s position remains unchanged。
IN ADDITION, POLICIES ON CURRENCY STABILIZATION AND RWA (REAL ESTATE) POLICIES, WHICH IN THE PAST HAD INVOLVED MANY COMPANIES, STATE ENTERPRISES, BANKS AND INTERNET COMPANIES IN APPLICATIONS AND PROJECTS FOR CURRENCY STABILIZATION AND RWA, HAVE SHOWN A POSITIVE IMPETUS. I BELIEVE THAT HONG KONG ' S POLICY MAY BECOME MORE FOCUSED AND TIGHTER IN THE SHORT TERM, PARTICULARLY IN HELPING LOCAL ENTERPRISES TO DEVELOP FAST AND STABLE CURRENCY PILOTS AND PROVIDE LIQUIDITY, A DIRECTION THAT WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED. OVERALL, HONG KONG ' S POSITIONING AND POLICY ADVANCEMENT, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE ENCRYPTED BIOSPHERE, SHOULD REMAIN UNCHANGED。
As for the interior of China, I do not believe that in the short term there will be any openness to the encryption industry. However, Hong Kong remains the best place for companies engaged in the industry to provide a sound environment for the encryption industry, whether through the RWA or through various means。
Livio: Yes, I think that this year did go through a rare reversal, from a policy of extreme openness to control today. It actually happened in 2017, when there were rumours of cards。
Colin: At that time, the rumor was to give fire coins, right
Livio: Yes. It was later found that as a series of events developed, the understanding of this new thing became complex and the risks associated with it increased. The situation in the interior of China, in particular, is complex, for example, when the discussion on the stabilization currency began in mid-year, it was very lively and many financial institutions were ready to take a leap forward. However, there is a group that has become particularly active at this time, and they have begun to use the banner &ldquao; State support &rdquao; and have launched various tokens, claiming that they can double, or even increase, a hundred or thousands of times, as much as a bit. As a result, many people were deceived。
INDEED, IT WAS THESE FINANCIAL MISBEHAVIOURS THAT THE STATE WAS WITNESSING, USING THE CONCEPT OF ENCRYPTED CURRENCY TO DECEIVE NEW INVESTORS, THAT LED TO A HALT IN POLICY. LOOKING BACK IN 2017, POLICY CONTROL AT THE TIME WAS NOT REALLY BASED ON THE DENIAL OF THE VALUE OF BITCOIN AND THE ETHERWOOD, BUT RATHER ON A REACTION TO THE CHAOS. THERE WERE THOUSANDS OF IEO AND ICO PROJECTS AT THE TIME, AND MANY TEAMS WERE ABLE TO DEFRAUD LARGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY BY A SIMPLE PPT, A FINANCIAL MESS SIMILAR TO THAT OF P2P. THIS IS DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE COUNTRY AND THE FACT THAT MANY PEOPLE HAVE DIFFERENT EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUNDS AND UNDERSTANDING SKILLS, LEADING TO A SERIES OF FINANCIAL FRAUDS。
That is why the State decided to make Hong Kong a pilot field, which is a combination of many considerations. Returning to Hong Kong, Hong Kong has been exploring the right path of policy for the past three years, particularly from 2022 to 2025. According to industry observations, the policy of the Hong Kong Government over the past three years has been relatively nuanced, but since this year, it has gradually found a way forward. In particular, significant recent measures, such as the opening of the 7 Stock Exchange, the removal of 12 months of restrictions and the possibility of connecting to global liquidity, indicate that Hong Kong's regulatory policy is accelerating its openness to industry。
Hong Kong regulation has done quite well in the challenges facing the Web3 industry. Although regulation in emerging industries is itself difficult, especially in fast-growing industries such as Web3, where many risk events have taken place in the past few years, Hong Kong ' s policies have been implemented gradually and steadily, and the future of the industry remains promising。
we've been exposed to regulations like japan, singapore and the united states, and we're all facing the same dilemma. mdash; — how to regulate effectively without excessive intervention. although some have criticized hong kong for its slow pace, these policies have finally been implemented, and we have seen hong kong move from its past & ldquo; touch rocks & rdquo; and gradually build regulatory confidence, which the government has been able to offer modest openness while ensuring healthy industry development。
Over the next three years, Hong Kong ' s policy will become more mature, particularly in the areas of regulatory and industrial development. Just as children learn from school to school, the encryption ecology of Hong Kong will enter a more mature stage and the whole industry will grow faster。
Colin: Thank you very much for your participation in today's event, and I hope you will work together to promote the development of Hong Kong and the Chinese-speaking Web3 industry so that the industry and community can grow。
📅Published：2025/11/10 12:35
🔄Updated：2025/11/10 12:35
🔗Source：PANews