Tens of billions of dollars: who should win the Mask and Ether
It is not a competition between "personal hero" and "technology agreement" but a competition between "equity options" and "network adoption"。
It is not a competition between "personal hero" and "technology agreement" but a competition between "equity options" and "network adoption"。
By Liam Akiba Wright
Photo by Saoirse, Foresight News
When Elon Musk's worth goes beyond the trillions of dollars, it's not just a sign of personal success, but a sign of a new stage in economic history -- a period in which individuals have enough influence to match sovereign nations。
As a Bitcoin holder, I see the vision of Decentreization of Wealth and Democratization of Finance as a blueprint for decentralization that reduces the dependence of the value system on a single subject. However, as capital, artificial intelligence and policies gradually converge into the expanding commercial empire of Mask, his rise also reveals the depth of our departure from this concept。
The attribution of "values" is moving towards concentration once again, except this time that those in charge are not Governments or banks, but individuals who convert technology into leverage。
It has been argued that Bitcoin is the purest form of private property: it cannot be confiscated, it has no borders and it is entirely under personal control. From this point of view, China may not see the emergence of the trillionaires as a failure of decentrization, but rather as a logical, albeit unexpected, consequence of decentrization。
Mask's elaborate wealth feast
To date, Tesla shareholders have approved a remuneration programme - the net assets of Mask are expected to increase to $1 trillion if the milestones set by the programme are fully met。
At the Tesla annual shareholders ' conference on November 6, over 75 per cent of the votes supported this multi-year plan, with power at its core. There is a clear premise in the scheme that Tesla needs to go beyond a range of operational and valuation thresholds, including a market value of nearly $8.5 trillion, and the large-scale deployment of auto-driving technologies and human-shaped robots。
THE NUMERICAL LOGIC BEHIND THE TESLA PROGRAMME CREATES AN ABNORMAL CONTRAST: A SINGLE INDIVIDUAL STOCK OPENING IS LIKELY TO EXCEED THE TOTAL CURRENT MARKET VALUE OF THE FOUR MAIN MAINSTREAM CURRENCIES (ETH, USDT, XRP AND BNB)。
How to cross the finish line: the game of wealth, power and policy
If all of Mask ' s options are held in parallel, his actual shareholding is about 25 per cent without taking into account the dilution of the equity and the financing implications。
At the market value of $8.5 trillion in Tesla, 27 per cent of its shares were valued at approximately $2.29 trillion. By mid-2025, SpaceX (the United States private space manufacturer and space transport company created in 2002 by Mask) had been valued in the private market at close to $350 billion, and there were open and optimistic projections that the company ' s valuation in the area of defence and broadband would have exceeded trillion by 2030。
With respect to the financing of xAI (Marsk's artificial intelligence company, founded in 2023), the valuation ranges from $75 billion to $200 billion. Taken together, this option "revenue-scientific" binds the personal wealth of Mask to the depth of the results of a small number of "no or no" results, the most critical of which is the commercialization of auto-driving taxis (Robotaxi) and human robots。
THE ACHIEVEMENT OF THESE OBJECTIVES IS SUBJECT NOT ONLY TO TECHNICAL CONSTRAINTS BUT ALSO TO POLICY CONSTRAINTS. FOR EXAMPLE, IN CALIFORNIA, TESLA CURRENTLY HOLDS ONLY A "SAFE DRIVER TEST PERMIT" ISSUED BY THE CALIFORNIA MOTOR VEHICLE ADMINISTRATION (DMV) AND HAS NOT YET BEEN GRANTED AN "UNMANNED TEST AND DEPLOYMENT PERMIT" TO OPEN COMMERCIAL OPERATIONS. THE CALIFORNIA GOVERNMENT HAS DOCUMENTED AND REUTERS REPORTS THAT THE VARIOUS STAGES OF THE TAXI SERVICE ARE ADVANCED AND REQUIRE SEPARATE APPROVAL FROM THE CALIFORNIA UTILITIES COMMISSION (CPUC)。
As documented earlier by the tech media, Ars Technica, NHSA’s review of the “full autopilot” function remains a potential risk point for public opinion。
The "T hundreds of billions of dollars challenge" of rational thinking about encrypted money
At present, Mask net assets exceed the market value of any single banknote. In the area of encrypted currency, only bitcoin's market value (over $2 trillion) is higher than his personal wealth -- and I'm fully optimistic about it, confident that it will continue to outperform any individual's portfolio。
The second highest market value, the Ether Fahrenheit, has fluctuated between $390 billion and $60 billion in recent months and currently stands at about $40 billion, about $100 billion below the personal wealth of Mask。
Next, we may wish to undertake some basic, forward-looking modelling analysis:
Conservative scenario:
If autopilot technology is delayed and Optimus human robots remain limited to small crowd scenes, Tesla valued or reached $3 trillion by 2035. At this point, 25 per cent of the Tesla shares held by Mask would yield some $750 billion in revenue, plus a $50 billion SpaceX and a $500-100 billion valuation of XAI, with total assets of approximately $1,33-135 trillion. After deducting the cost of options, taxes and loans, their net assets are slightly less than $1 trillion, and may not even be able to break this threshold。
By contrast, the market value of the five thousand dollars and 125 million in circulation is only about $625 billion。
Baseline scenario:
The value of the Tesla market was $5 trillion, Optimus was the first to be put into operation at the plant, and energy operations expanded to scale, and the value of the Tesla shares held by Mask would reach $1.25-1.45 trillion. With SpaceX 1 trillion dollars and XAI 200 billion dollars in valuation, its net assets have exceeded $1 trillion to become “basic results”。
The total market value is only around $1.2-12.25 trillion, even if the value of the Taifeng is close to US$ 10,000 and the circulation is 1.2-12.5 billion。
Optimistic scenario:
At $8.5 trillion in market value, auto-driving taxis are widely used and human robots are being scaled up; while SpaceX valuation is moving towards $2.5 trillion, the XAI valuation has exceeded $500 billion, and Mask's personal wealth will reach trillions of dollars。
This comparison is not a competition between "personal hero" and "technology agreement" but between "equity options" and "network adoptions"。
Thus, if the ETA is to move beyond Mask (assets under the flag) and take the lead in breaking the $1 trillion valuation over the next decade, its price will need to be exceeded by $10,000, provided that the value of Tesla does not exceed $3 trillion。
A billionaire's influence and wealth politics
However, I think the “social narrative framework” around these numbers is equally important。
Research published by Cambridge University Press has shown that the worship of super-rich people, and the accompanying notions of " elitism" or "system defense," can reduce support for redistribution of wealth and progressive taxation -- an impact that is also present in low-income groups。
Long-standing studies in the political sciences have shown that policy outcomes are far more responsive to the preferences of the affluent than those of ordinary citizens. This means a high concentration of wealth, which can be translated into lasting political influence。
At the same time, studies of economics (such as the Economics Quarterly and related literature) have found that engagement with wealthier groups reduces individual satisfaction with life while at the same time increasing flaunting consumption and lending behaviour - an impact that is particularly pronounced in the bottom groups of income distribution。
The Harris Poll poll in 2024 showed that most respondents considered that “billionaires are not contributing enough to society”; and the British survey revealed widespread public concern that “super-rich people have too much political influence”。
These are not abstract public opinions about celebrities, but the "photo-ring effect" of billionaires and media narratives that are counterproductive to fiscal budgets, electoral votes and social debt。
Positioning ethical boundaries from a scale perspective
According to Forbes magazine, the number of billionaires worldwide reached 3028 in 2025, a record high. The total global population is about 82.33 billion, which means that only about 1 out of 2.7 million people can be among the billionaires。
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO TRILLIONAIRES GLOBALLY. ACCORDING TO ESTIMATES BY THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (UBS), TOTAL GLOBAL HOUSEHOLD WEALTH IS $45 TRILLION, OF WHICH $1 TRILLION REPRESENTS 0.22 PER CENT. REUTERS'S READING OF THE SWISS BANK DATA SHOWS THAT THE MEDIAN GLOBAL ADULT WEALTH IS ONLY "THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS", WITH MORE THAN 80 PER CENT OF ADULTS HAVING LESS THAN $100,000。
One trillion dollars of personal wealth, equal to the total net assets of between 100 million and 130 million adults at the middle wealth level. The chances of moving from a millionaire to a billionaire are extremely low, and it is clearly illogical at the digital level to see " trillions of dollars" as a publicly viable goal。
Policy choices are key variables that affect the "top groups of wealth". The current rules allow for the growth of top-level wealth, while the “policy bias against the rich” mentioned earlier tends to delay the “affordability” of livelihoods (e.g. housing, health costs)。
As the economist Zucman Simulation, Oxfam quotes and the Washington Post reports on the program: A 2 per cent targeted annual tax on billionaires' wealth could raise about $250 billion a year. This funding can be used to finance public goods or to ease cost-of-living pressures, while at the same time reducing the gap between the top of wealth and the general population。
In the experimental scenario, if sociocultural change from "personal hero narratives" to "systemic interpretation of progress", there will be a significant increase in support for progressive taxation -- which will provide a more moderate counterweight to the spillover effects of "rich cults."。
A multi-billion-dollar competition for policy and public awareness
These measures, by themselves, do not alter the valuation logic of Tesla or the demand curve of encrypted currencies, but can adjust the “external environment” in which huge wealth is found。
The issue of governance within Tesla is also a matter of concern: not only the board of directors, but also the shareholders who have valued and approved the "proceed-out" of options – a process that responds to some kind of criticism, but has given rise to new controversy。
If state regulators and the security services can effectively control the "automated driving cash flow" that underpins the pay scheme, the current public regulation system will play the role of "upstream porter" in the "private wealth options worth trillions of dollars."。
ACCORDING TO REUTERS AND THE CALIFORNIA GARAGE, THE "UNMANNED TESTING AND DEPLOYMENT PERMIT" IS STILL REQUIRED FOR TESLA'S OPERATION OF AUTO-DRIVING TAXIS IN KEY MARKETS; AT THE SAME TIME, NHTSA'S REVIEW IS CONTINUING. THE TIMING OF THOSE APPROVALS, RATHER THAN PRESS CONFERENCES, DETERMINES WHETHER THE REMUNERATION PLAN WILL LAND。
We don't need to cheer or sarcastic about Mask, and we can see the contrast clearly:
In order to reach the scale of US$ 1-2 trillion in encrypted money, it depends on ‘the rate of adoption, throughput and financial flows’; while the founders accumulate more than US$ 1 trillion in wealth, relying on ‘a few technological breakthroughs and regulatory liberalization’。
One can appreciate the implementation or technological innovation of Mask, but there is no need to promote the "culture of the rich" - This culture weakens support for redistribution of wealth while magnifying the influence of elites on policies. The logic of this is clear, and worship depends on personal choice。
Ultimately, whether the first breakthrough of $1 trillion is an individual or a network, the more important question is: which system we want to empower? Is it based on individual ambitions or on collective identity and participation